Chances of this happening: Extremely high. Whether actions taken by President Trump provide an immediate financial return or simply seed massive fields to be harvested at a later date, it is hard to imagine a scenario where he would not act to enrich himself. One who will surely leverage his term as president of the United States for future personal and family business dealings as opposed to retirement and book writing will have a lot of opportunities to do favors over the coming weeks. Even a lame-duck president has a massive residue of power. If pardons seem irresistible, just look at self-enrichment. Every pardon has the potential to translate into post-presidential profit for the president and the Trump family. Pardons, while occasionally ideological, are fine political currency. With such a high bar to clear, could President Trump do it? Absolutely. Also of note, those 300 Obama pardons are 292 more than he made during the first seven years and 10 months of his presidency. Of the past 10 presidents, the 300 Obama pardons from the 2016 election until he left office are eight times the number of pardons of the second-highest finisher. Of course, surpassing former President Obama in this area is going to take some work and a lot of pen refills. Chances of this happening: Low to moderate. More practically, perhaps it would be the repayment of personal and political favors to foreign governments by assisting in coups, missions, and the like. Perhaps it would be to exit as the only lame-duck president to save the United States from destruction by a foreign adversary. While this is possible to do, the advantage for President Trump is difficult to comprehend. The Transition Integrity Project refers to this as the Wag the Dog scenario.
This has already begun, with the administrator of the General Services Administration refusing to allow the transition process to start. It would be easy for the president to be an obstacle rather than an ally in the upcoming transition to a Biden administration. Deeply disrupt the administrative transition process.As a president who has defined himself in part through a demonstrable skill to move his political base to action, creating or encouraging domestic political unrest between now and mid-January would be nothing new. Chances of this happening: Moderate to high. All of that said, with President-elect Biden tracking to over 300 electoral college votes, any election challenge at this point is more than likely moot. For any legal challenges to actually be successful moving forward, the president as claimant would need to set forth actual legal claims, prove his arguments with facts and evidence, and match his claims to remedies that give him actual and appropriate relief. Yet, in the days following the election, he has already had multiple cases dismissed. There is nothing illegal or even inappropriate about President Trump exercising his rights to pursue redress in the courts. Contest the election into January 2021.Here are 10 possible scenarios that could unfold over the next 11 weeks: Other scenarios are simply a logical extension of where we find ourselves today. Some of the following scenarios were raised by the Transition Integrity Project, a short-term project created to conduct scenario-based exercises aimed at identifying potential risks to the integrity of the 2020 election and transition process. What can we expect President Trump to do between now and Inauguration Day?
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